Model to forecast malaria outbreaks

ScienceNordic : Yet another effect of climate change may be more malaria outbreaks in Africa. Researchers for the Ethiopian Malaria Prediction System (EMAPS) estimate that 70â000â100â000 people die from malaria in Ethiopia every year. They think that number could increase with global warming because warmer temperatures and rainier weather would allow the mosquito population to grow and spread to higher elevations where they have not previously been found. To quantify that prediction in a model, the researchers brought together meteorologists, hydrologists, entomologists, and epidemiologists who accumulated a huge database of information on weather, rainfall, temperature, and malaria patterns. So far, the model seems to be working well, according to Bernt Lindtjørn, the Norwegian coordinator of EMAPS. However, to make it applicable in different regions and under different circumstances, further testing is needed.