First tornado forecast

On this day in 1948, meteorologists Ernest Fawbush (left) and Robert Miller issued the first tornado forecast. Fawbush and Miller were stationed at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma, in an era before weather radar and computer modeling. On March 20 a tornado had ripped through the base, causing injuries and $10 million of damage. Investigators said the tornado “was not forecastable given the present state of the art.” Not accepting that conclusion, Fawbush and Miller studied weather charts for the hours preceding that tornado and others. On the morning of March 25, the meteorologists were shocked to observe the same kind of weather conditions that had preceded the tornado five days earlier. Despite the seemingly small odds of two tornadoes hitting the same spot within days, Fawbush and Miller issued a tornado forecast at 2:50pm. Sure enough, a tornado touched down at the base shortly after 6pm. The twister caused $6 million of damage, but it would have been a lot worse without the forecast.

Date in History: 25 March 1948