China’s change on climate change

At a press conference held in New Delhi in India yesterday, Xie Zhenhua , China’s leading negotiator on climate change, while stating that global warming was a “solid fact,” expressed doubts on the basic premise that climate change is being caused by human-made emissions because of “disputes in the scientific community.”

Xie had been meeting with representatives from India, Brazil and South Africa—the so-called BASIC bloc that formed after the Copenhagen climate talks —over what emission limits to send to the UN. Countries are supposed to submit their proposed cuts at the end of the month.

Xie—who is vice-chairman of China’s National Development and Reforms Commission —statements were based on two events: the so-called “climategate” emails and a correction to the glacial chapter of the fourth assessment report from the United Nation’s InternGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“The major reason of the climate change is the unconstrained emissions of developed countries during the industrialization process,” says Xie. “That’s the mainstream view, but there are some uncertainties.”

Xie said that it was important to include as many views as possible “to be more scientific and to be more consistent.”

“There is a view that climate change is caused by cyclical trends in nature itself,” said Xie, “we have to keep an open attitude.”

A storm in a teapot

The “climategate” emails were from a number of leading climate researchers that were obtained by someone who hacked into the University of East Anglia’s mail server and made public last month.

The IPCC recently acknowledged a claim in one paragraph that Himalayan glaciers could disappear within three decades which went into one of their reports was not based on scientific fact but a speculative comment made by Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain in an interview with New Scientist magazine ten years ago .

Non-peer reviewed literature can be used in IPCC reports, but all such data is supposed to be checked and verified for authenticity. “That’s where the failure took place,” said IPCC chairman R K Pachauri to the Business Standard . “That failure should never have happened.”

Hasnain never published this speculation in a peer-reviewed journal and has recently stated that the Himalayan glaciers are not receding as fast as to disappear by 2035.

Jeffrey S. Kargel, a glaciologist at the University of Arizona confirms this interpretation. “It is physically not possible to melt so much ice so quickly at such high alpine elevations,” he said. “Even with rapid global warming.”

“The melting rates are fairly typical of the rapid melting rates seen widely through the world,” Kargel adds. “But they are not so rapid as to cause himalayan glaciers to disappear by 2035.”

In fact, it will take at least 300 years for global warming to melt the glaciers.

Although the “climategate” hacked emails did not contain any material that disputed the basis of climate change, the conversations between the researchers did not leave a positive impression to those who read them of the scientists behavior towards climate skeptics.

A calculated stance?

Xie’s comments at the BASIC bloc’s press conference is being widely interpreted as a way of gaining concessions in the Obama administration’s proposal to fund voluntary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Both India and China would prefer for their greenhouse gas emission “intensity” to be reduced rather that have their emissions capped in order for their economies to continue to rapidly develop.

Under Obama’s proposal —which is being negotiated separately from the official UN climate talks—developing countries would receive billions of dollars to switch towards more efficient energy technologies and negate the impact of climate change but countries would have to agree to capping their emissions. The fund is supposed to collect $100 billion by 2020.

The BASIC block, which called for both sets of talks to be merged into one legally binding agreement yesterday, confirmed at the press conference it would give its part of the US$10 billion expected to be raised this year, under informal agreements signed at the Copenhagen climate talks .

Jairam Ramesh , India’s environment minister, called on the developed countries to quickly meet their pledge to contribute to the fund as a sign of “sincerity.”

Meanwhile, an analysis of the Copenhagen agreements of what would happen if they were to be followed suggest that average global temperatures would rise above 3°C, by 2050 much higher than the 2°C target.

Paul Guinnessy