Projected output of physicists

There is now available a “Projection of Earned Degrees to 1969–70” issued in September 1959 by the Office of Education of the US Department of Health, Education and Welfare. The document also lists the number of degrees actually awarded in the period 1947–48 to 1957–58. Also available from the same office is a compilation of degrees awarded in physics in the period 1947–48 to 1957–58 inclusive. The Office has not attempted, for publication at least, to project the number of future physics degrees. The present paper makes such an attempt. It is limited to a projection of degrees at the baccalaureate level, which is uncertain enough. To go on to advanced degrees involves projections of projections which are quite obviously unreliable.

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