World will not be able to stop global warming rising above 2 degrees Celsius, say experts

The Guardian : Almost nine out of 10 climate scientists do not believe political efforts to restrict global warming to 2 ^o C will succeed, a Guardian poll (of attendees of an international climate conference in Copenhagen) reveals today. An average rise of 4–5 ^o C by the end of this century is more likely, they say, given soaring carbon emissions and political constraints.The poll of those who follow global warming most closely exposes a widening gulf between political rhetoric and scientific opinions on climate change. While policymakers and campaigners focus on the 2 ^o C target, 86% of the experts told the survey they did not think it would be achieved. A continued focus on an unrealistic 2 ^oC rise, which the EU defines as dangerous, could even undermine essential efforts to adapt to inevitable higher temperature rises in the coming decades, they warned.The Guardian contacted all 1,756 people who registered to attend the Copenhagen conference—which presented evidence that that suggested global warming could strike harder and faster than realized—and asked for their opinions on the likely course of global warming. Of 261 experts who responded, 200 were researchers in climate science and related fields. The rest were drawn from industry or worked in areas such as economics and social and political science.The 261 respondents represented 26 countries and included dozens of senior figures, including laboratory directors, heads of university departments, and authors of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Many of the experts stressed that an inability to hit the 2 ^o C target did not mean that efforts to tackle global warming should be abandoned, but that the emphasis is now on damage limitation.