The basis of the Copenhagen climate talks

While negotiations continue over the formation of an international emissions treaty in Copenhagen (COP15), the run up to the conference helped develop a rash of announcements regarding emission caps and research and development from Brazil, China, India, South Africa and the US.

Although many of these announcements fall short in meeting the goal of trying to limit the mean global temperature rise to 2 °C, it is progress compared to their earlier commitments and lays the groundwork for further negotiation at the COP15 meeting.

All emission data was obtained from http://wwww.climateactiontracker.org

China

During President Barack Obama’s recent trip to China, the two nations signed agreements to enhance “cooperation on climate change, energy and environment” announced Chinese President Hu Jintao.

The agreement included the formation of a $150 million US-China clean energy research center, equally funded by both countries for 5 years. The center will act as a clearing house to aid researcher in both countries in areas such as the so-called “clean-coal” technology.

The US and China will also develop joint standards and conduct demonstration projects in more than a dozen cities for the next generation of electric vehicles, and develop a new energy efficiency action plan to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, industry and appliances.

In a surprising move both countries agreed to develop a detailed roadmap to improve and increase electricity generation from renewable energy sources such as wind power—China is already close to being the world’s largest user of a wind power despite wind producing only 0.4 percent of China’s electricity—and is investing in a “smarter” electrical grid to balance load with demand.

China announced it is aiming for a 40-45 percent “energy efficiency” improvement by 2025 from 2005 levels. This allows for China’s greenhouse gas emissions to continue to grow.

The result in Copenhagen “will mostly be on what will be delivered by the United States and China,” said EU environment spokesman Andreas Carlgren to reporters on Monday. He said he would be astonished if Obama did not put more on the table.

US

As well as signaling its willingness to strike bilateral deals with the Chinese, the Obama administration also laid the gauntlet down to Congress’s reluctance to pass a climate bill.

Earlier this week the Environmental Protection Agency presented its official “findings” , that growing concentrations of greenhouse gases “in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.”

The US Supreme court announced that the EPA could regulate greenhouse emissions under the clean air act four years ago but it was not until the new administration came into office that the EPA formulated an official finding on the matter.

“This administration will not ignore science or the law any longer, nor will we ignore the responsibility we owe to our children and our grandchildren,” said said EPA secretary Lisa Jackson in a press conference.

The implication is that this new policy allows the EPA to regulate all greenhouse gas emissions in the US without input from Congress if the Senate and House of Representatives does not pass a climate bill.

Moreover it strengthens the US public position in the Copenhagen negotiations as it gives the impression that the US is now more committed to cutting emissions than they were three months ago, and has the tools to implement cuts—unlike the previous climate treaty—the 1997 Kyoto Protocol—which was not ratified by the Senate and never went into US law.

Currently the US is aiming for a 3-4 percent cut in CO₂ emissions from 1990, or 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2025, 42 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050.

Europe

Although Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s labour party is unlikely to win the next election, they have committed the UK to reducing its greenhouse gas emission by proposing a massive increase in the number of new nuclear reactors to be built in the UK from 1 to 10. The UK government is also proposing additional funds to support the development of renewable power sources such as wind, wave, and solar power. As part of the UK’s internal target Brown is proposing that the UK cut CO₂ emissions by 20% over the next ten years (compared to 1990 levels) and 80% by 2050.

According to the Guardian newspaper Brown is proposing that Europe as a whole aim for a 30 percent reduction by 2025.

France is already attempting to cut its CO₂ emissions by 75 percent by the year 2050 by implementing a carbon tax .

Developing countries

Nearly all the improvements proposed by developing countries (and China) is tied to money.

South Africa said it would slow the growth of its emissions to 34 percent below the current annual growth rate by 2020 and to 42 percent by 2025, as long as international aid is forthcoming.

Despite investing in prototype nuclear reactors, South Africa is currently relying heavily on coal-fired power plants to generate electricity and demand continues to exceeds supply.

A similar situation exists with India’s growing population and energy demand. India is offering—assuming it can tap into a climate change fund—to improve its energy efficiency by 20 or 25 percent better than 2005 levels. The Indian government also proposed a new climate research center last week to look at climate impacts specific to India.

There are two developing countries that have offered actual cuts (for a fee): Brazil and Mexico. Brazil is offering 36 to 39 percent below 1994 levels by 2020. Mexico is offering 50 percent by 2050.

End game

On average these promises on emissions reductions or efficiencies fall well short of meeting the targets required to stabilized the temperature rise.

Developed countries average out between 8 to 14 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. In reality, cuts of 25 to 40 percent by 2020, and more than 80-95 percent by 2050 is required. For developing countries a dramatic cut in emission rise is needed.

There is another week to go before the international negotiations in Copenhagen conclude, but as the pre-conference pledges clearly show, it is likely that further emission cuts on top of those already proposed will be announced, or the meeting will be cast as a failure.

Paul Guinnessy