Ocean warming increases frequency of severe El Niños and La Niñas

New Scientist : Previous analysis of the El Niño Southern Oscillation has suggested that warming ocean temperatures are going to cause the number of extreme El Niño events to double in frequency in the 21st century. Now Wenju Cai of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Melbourne, Australia, and his colleagues have shown that the number of extreme La Niña events is also expected to double. In their analysis, 17 of 21 climate models showed a doubling in frequency, and the average increase across all models was 74%. Cai says it is the uneven heating of the Pacific Ocean that is driving the increasing severity of the two weather patterns. An especially severe El Niño discharges larger amounts of energy from equatorial waters, which allows larger areas of cold water to rise to the surface. The lower temperatures at the ocean surface drive La Niñas.