No thaw in US–Russia nuclear relations seen at recent conference

During a recent gathering in Arlington, Virginia, officials from Russia and the US gave little hope that a four-year impasse over bilateral nuclear arms reductions will be resolved any time soon. At the Nuclear Deterrence Summit, Russia continued to insist that other strategic defense issues be addressed before discussions are initiated on the cutting of warhead numbers to below the limits specified in the nuclear arms reduction treaty New START.

“We need to move beyond Russia’s rote list of preconditions to our next steps to nuclear arms control,” said Jon Wolfsthal, senior director for arms control and nonproliferation at the National Security Council. “We hear the same litany time and again about Russia’s concern over space weapons and missile defense and the conventional imbalance on prompt global strike that have been addressed in nuclear arms control discussions over the years.” He noted that several of those issues were on the table for New START in 2011 but that they did not prevent negotiations or entry into force of the treaty.

Sergey Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to the US, stated flatly that Russia’s policy of preconditions to arms reduction talks has not changed. “When it comes to negotiations on strategic weapons, one of the problems is that you invite us to talk about the core of our deterrence while you are expanding the capabilities that ensure your deterrence—[prompt] global strike and ballistic missile defense,” he said. “We explain our concerns. You explain to us that we are not right; that the US knows better what is best for Russian interests.”

Wolfsthal countered that the US is prepared to address the other issues of Russian concern as part of talks over warhead reductions.

In an interview, Kislyak said Russia has continued to upgrade its physical protections on weapons-usable materials—efforts that in the past were accomplished with US funding and technical assistance. “Especially in the 1990s, we didn’t have enough funds to do it fast. And we are grateful to the US for the support they gave to us. We are self-reliant now, and the major programs have been completed,” he said.

But National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) officials say those cooperative programs were terminated due to the deterioration of bilateral relations. As a result, considerable unused funding will be carried over to the nonproliferation program’s fiscal year 2017 budget request. Anne Harrington, deputy NNSA administrator for nonproliferation, told reporters in February that “one of the countries that we used to do a lot of work with is Russia. You know about the downturn in the relationship between US and Russia. There’s not as much activity going on there as in the past.”

The two men accused each other’s country of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Kislyak complained that the launchers used for the antiballistic missiles in NATO countries are the same ones that are used to fire cruise missiles from ships. Wolfsthal said that Russia’s development of a ground-based cruise missile contravened the INF Treaty. “Russia is more than capable of ensuring its security with its sizeable nuclear triad and with all its air and sea launched cruise missiles that are permitted by the treaty,” he said. “We have been very clear that the US and NATO will take whatever steps are necessary to ensure that Russia does not gain a military advantage as a result of their violations of the INF treaty.”

Kislyak maintained that “the reason for all this drumbeating is to push the NATO machine toward our borders. That is what is happening under the guise of protecting your allies.”

Although the US hasn’t “drawn a direct line from the INF and future prospects for a negotiated agreement,” Wolfsthal said, “it will be politically challenging, to put it mildly, for the US and Russia to think about a follow on agreement to the new START, if they are violating an important arms control agreement.”

Kislyak said the US training of pilots from non-nuclear-weapons member countries of NATO to fly nuclear missions might violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. US policy toward Russia is based on containment, deterrence, and isolation, not cooperation, he said.