Modern storm-risk assessment must look beyond historical record

Science : Parts of the world that have experienced extreme storms in the past are generally better prepared for such disasters in the future. But just because a region hasn’t had a bad storm doesn’t mean it never will. A new risk-assessment tool looks beyond the historical record and takes into account other factors, such as the physics of storms and the shape of an area’s sea floor and coastline. As evidenced by Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, which struck New Orleans and the US East Coast, respectively, it is storm surge that can wreak the most destruction. To predict the likelihood of storm surge, researchers used a two-part model that simulated storms all over the world over tens of thousands of years and then statistically analyzed all the data. They found that some areas historically lacking severe storms actually have a potentially large risk of one, a risk that will likely increase due to climate change and rising sea levels.