Mathematical model explores evolution through correlated novelties

Washington Post : The evolution of any system, whether it is biological, physical, or conceptual, involves a series of discoveries or innovations, each building on the ones that preceded it. To explain the phenomenon, Steven Strogatz of Cornell University and colleagues cite Pólya’s urn , in which a certain number of white and black balls are placed. When one ball is drawn out, its color is noted; then it is replaced and another ball of the same color is added to the urn. Thus as one color is selected, the odds increase that it will be picked again. That self-reinforcing property, called “the adjacent possible,” can be seen in everything from the evolution of feathers and flight in birds to the selection of songs in online music catalogs. The researchers discuss the “dynamics of correlated novelties” in greater depth in their recent study published in Scientific Reports.