Iran-Turkey nuclear deal looks uncertain

One of the proposed international solutions to Iran’s public plans to enrich uranium for its nuclear power program, is for Iran to ship its low enriched uranium abroad.

Halfway through the nuclear nonproliferation treaty review conference in New York, Iran agreed to do just that—to move 50% (1200 kg) of its low enriched uranium which contains about 3-5% uranium 235 (235U) to Turkey via a formal proposal to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran then hopes to get 120 kg of highly enriched 235U (about 20%) a year later.

The 17 May proposal, made public on state television by Ramin Mehmanparast, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, was aimed at reducing international concerns about whether Iran is planning to enrich 235U for a future weapons program, and to gain highly enriched fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) that provides medical isotopes.

It came out of a visit of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan , to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad .

The agreement was seen as a coup for Turkey’s attempts to get Iran more closely engaged with the international community, as the deal is very similar to one proposed by the IAEA , endorsed by the US last October, and later reneged by Iran.

“The swap deal shows that Tehran wants to open a constructive path. . . . There is no more ground for new sanctions and pressures,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoĞlu .

However, the deal still leaves enough low-enriched 235U in Iran to later enrich to weapons-grade, and concern over whether the Iranian acceptance of the plan was more about smoothing over any potential disagreements with Erdogan’s visit than a genuine deal. Is Iran playing for time?

This “does not solve the fundamental [Iranian] problem, which is that the international community has serious concerns about the peaceful intention of the Iran nuclear program,” said Catherine Ashton, an EU spokesperson.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Congress that a draft resolution for another round of sanctions against Iran had been agreed by the UN security council the day after the Iranian announcement.

“This proposal is less than what they agreed to last October,” said Whitehouse press secretary Robert Gibbs . “And understand that even though they agreed to this last October, it never came to pass because they changed their mind...the words and the deeds of the leadership in Iran have rarely coincided.”

Perhaps one indicator on how serious the transfer deal with Turkey is, can be found by Iran’s commitment to Turkey not to enrich beyond 5%—the agreement doesn’t include any verification techniques to confirm such a commitment.

Paul Guinnessy