Improved algorithm decreases time to model tsunami heights

Science News : Current tsunami prediction systems rely on seismometers. However, if the seismometers are located too near a quake’s epicenter, they can be overwhelmed, and if they are located farther away, it can take too long for scientists to gather accurate readings. Further delay is introduced when the data are fed into the complex algorithms used to model tsunamis. A new system, developed by Sebastián Riquelme of the University of Chile in Santiago and his colleagues, can estimate a tsunami’s height in just 15 seconds by using the same seismograph data to calculate the amount of water displaced by the quake. For last week’s magnitude 8.3 quake off the coast of Chile, their model estimated a maximum tsunami height of 5 m to 6 m. Early reports suggest the tsunami peaked at 4.75 m. With upgraded earthquake detecting systems that include GPS monitoring stations, scientists will have better information about earthquakes sooner and can model them faster. Riquelme says that because tsunamis can reach the Chilean coast just 15 minutes after an earthquake, the speed of a prediction can be more important than its accuracy. However, other researchers say that the system doesn’t account for secondary, even larger tsunamis triggered by underwater landslides.