China rises in R&D metrics

“China is a hair’s breadth away from counting more researchers than either the USA or the European Union and now publishes more scientific articles than Japan,” say the authors of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s first major international survey of R&D in five years.

The UNESCO report analyzes the trends and developments that have shaped scientific research, innovation, and higher education since 2002. Among those developments is the current global economic recession, which has hit the three biggest spenders on R&D—Europe, Japan, and the US (nicknamed the Triad)—harder than Brazil, China, or India.

Overall, the percentage of the world’s GDP devoted to R&D has remained at 1.7%, but because the global economy continues to grow, the amount of money spent has increased from $790 billion to $1200 billion.

Changing mobility

The Triad countries, says the report, “may still dominate R&D but they are increasingly being challenged by the emerging economies and above all by China.” In 2007 Asia accounted for 32% of gross domestic expenditure in R&D compared with 27% in 2002. China now has 1.423 million researchers (20% of the world’s total), nearly equal with Europe and the US. Japan has 10% and Russia, 7%.

The report notes that unlike most of the 20th century, when scientists, information, and resources would mostly flow within the Triad, those flows now spread over a greater proportion of the globe. “Both China and India are using their newfound economic might to invest in high-tech companies in Europe and elsewhere to acquire technological expertise overnight,” says the report. Other large emerging economies—Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey—are also increasing R&D spending.

Part of the transformation is due to the rapid advancement in modern communications, particularly with mobile phones in regions that were ill-served by landlines. By “leapfrogging” the heavy investment required to install a cable-based communication, emerging economic powers can participate in international academic and development networks, says the report.

The report also notes that access to online information “is one of the most promising new trends of the Millennium.” Moreover, a long-term strategy by countries such as India and China to invest in education (India has opened more than 30 universities in the last decade alone) is starting to pay off.

The stock market crash

The global recession is another reason for changing investment patterns. “Whereas Europe and the US are struggling to free themselves from the grips of the recession, firms from emerging economies like Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are witnessing sustained domestic growth and moving upstream in the value chain,” says the report.

The trend is partly due to those countries having a “national targeted technology policy with the aggressive—and successful—pursuit of better academic research within a short space of time. To this end, they have made astute use of both monetary and non-monetary incentives.”

Another trend detailed in the report concerns recruiting. “It is well-known that many academic leaders in American, Australian and European universities have, in the past five years, been offered positions and large research budgets in fast-growing universities in East Asian countries.”

Industrial R&D was severely hit in the US, says the report, with circumstantial evidence suggesting big R&D spenders cut their expenditure by 5–25%, while a minority increased spending by 6–19%.

The share of papers in research journals from developing countries has increased from 16% to 25% between 2002 and 2008. China’s contribution more than doubled from 5.2% to 10.6%. However, researchers based in the Triad still get more citations than those scientists based elsewhere, along with more patent applications.

All these trends, says the report, are “fostering a democratization of science worldwide,” implying that science diplomacy “is becoming a key instrument of peace-building and sustainable development in international relations.”

Paul Guinnessy