California wildfires aren’t matching models
DOI: 10.1063/PT.5.029208
San Francisco Chronicle : Wildfires are common in California. For nearly 40 years, models have been used to predict the fires’ spread and severity so that plans can be developed to fight and manage them. However, the fires in California this summer have been growing bigger and more quickly than the models have predicted. Although forecasts take into account a wide range of variables, they are usually only created twice a day and are often not much better than an expert making trial-and-error predictions. Janice Coen of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, believes one explanation may be that the models don’t account for turbulent weather caused by the fires themselves. Coen is working to develop a more advanced modeling system that will be used for the first time next year in Colorado.
