Budget cuts and poor data constrain El Niño prediction ability

Nature : Because of the damage a major El Niño can cause across multiple continents, climate scientists are working to improve their ability to forecast such storms. But their efforts have been hampered by budget cuts and aging equipment. Systems such as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific Ocean have started to break down, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which maintains it, has been scrambling to find the funds to make the needed repairs. In the meantime, researchers have had some success combining data from multiple forecasting models, which tends to cancel out the flaws in any one system, and supplementing buoy data with satellite observations. Regarding a potential El Niño later this year, the next several months will be crucial as forecasters work to determine its likelihood and its size.