US weather model down to fourth best in the world
DOI: 10.1063/PT.5.029915
Ars Technica : Over the past several years, the success of the US’s Global Forecasting System (GFS) weather model has been challenged by the rise of other models, such as one put out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The competition between models first reached broad popular awareness in 2012, when the European model more accurately predicted the behavior of Hurricane Sandy. In a widely accepted measurement of forecast accuracy, the GFS model has now fallen behind not only the European model but also models from the UK and Canada, based on predictions over the past two months in the Northern Hemisphere. According to Cliff Mass of the University of Washington, the drop in ranking isn’t because the GFS model is failing but because the other models have improved significantly.
