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Super El Niño fueled by failed 2014 event

MAY 03, 2016
Physics Today

Science News : Last year saw the emergence of one of the three strongest El Niño events ever. Heavy rainfall in California, massive coral bleaching in the oceans, and a global heat wave that made 2015 the hottest year on record have been just a few of its effects. But the 2015 event would not have been possible without the failed El Niño from the year before, according to a study published in Geophysical Research Letters. Michael McPhaden and Aaron Levine of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration looked at decades of El Niño data and ran computer simulations. They found that although the 2015 El Niño would have had just a 27% chance of forming, remnant heat in the Pacific Ocean left over from the 2014 nonevent increased the odds to 40%. Strong winds that kicked in sealed the deal. “Strong El Niños require strong winds, not just warm water,” said Levine.

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