China unlikely to change its no-first-use nuclear policy

China’s entire nuclear weapons posture, and its relatively small arsenal of about 250 warheads, is based on its pledge of no first use, according to Pan Zhenqiang, former director of strategic studies at China’s National Defense University.

Although that pledge is “extremely unlikely” to change, missile defense, space-based weapons, or other new technologies that threaten the credibility of China’s deterrent could lead to a policy shift and a buildup of its nuclear stockpile, said Pan, who is also a retired major general in the People’s Liberation Army.

Speaking at an 8 October forum at the University of Maryland, Pan said that no first use is embodied in the country’s decision to keep its nuclear forces off hair-trigger alert and to separate warheads from their delivery systems—contrary to US and Russian practices.

By ruling out the option of a preemptive nuclear strike, China has forgone the need to engage in an arms race, deploy its weapons abroad, or build nonstrategic nuclear weapons, he said.

Another factor that could complicate China’s strategic calculations is nuclear proliferation in Asia and the Middle East, Pan said, since that would affect the balance between the nation’s working toward global nuclear disarmament and nuclear cooperation with its neighbors.

Although adding to its nuclear arsenal or ending its no-first-use pledge might earn China more respect from the US and its neighboring nuclear powers, Pan said, it would lead to a new arms race and distract from the nation’s primary goal of economic development.

At one point, he said, the Chinese government had debated internally whether to unilaterally disarm. But such thinking has now “evaporated,” and has been dismissed as utopian. “China still faces a serious nuclear threat from the US,” Pan noted.

Fan Jishe, director of strategic studies at the center for arms control and nonproliferation studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China’s nonproliferation policy changed dramatically after it acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003. That shift coincided with the government’s decision to work in earnest to integrate the nation fully into the global community, he said.

Previously, China had sold a variety of nuclear-related items, including heavy water and enriched uranium, to India, Pakistan, and other nations.